Written by Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at Agbiz
The global wheat market has been eventful in recent weeks. As a net wheat importer, South Africa closely watches major shifts in price and supply.
In the 2026-27 season, South Africa will likely need even slightly bigger wheat import volumes than the previous season. The domestic harvest isn’t in good condition; the dryness of the past few months, combined with reduced area plantings, are some of the challenges that generally weigh on domestic wheat supplies. Thus, making the global environment even more important.
If one looks closely at the wheat market over the past few months, market participants have focused on disruptions at Ukrainian shipping ports due to Russia’s attack, driving up global wheat prices. Moreover, diesel shortages in parts of Russia have also raised fears in grain markets more broadly, as they signal potential delays in product movements. Elsewhere in Europe, summer heatwaves and drought have been major concerns over the past few months.
Together, these factors have reshaped the global wheat market, from the low prices we saw at the start of the year to a surge in recent months. For example, US Hard red winter wheat traded below US$300 per tonne through April 2026. But that price has increased to US$351 per tonne now as we end September 2026. This is nearly a 20% increase from the end of April. On an annual basis, wheat prices are up by roughly 56%. The events we mention above are the major price drivers so far.
Fortunately, the world is not facing wheat supply constraints per se, but rather logistics disruptions. Despite the intense heatwave and drought across various regions of the Northern Hemisphere, global wheat supplies remain broadly solid. For example, this month, the International Grains Council placed the 2026-27 global wheat production forecast at 820 million tonnes. Looking at this figure year on year may be worrying, signalling a 3% drop from the 2025-26 season. But over the long term, a harvest of 820 million tonnes is well above the long-term level of about 790 million tonnes.
This further underscores our view that wheat supplies are broadly plentiful in the world market; the near-term issue is logistics. Even when assessing stock levels, the picture is similar: a 2% year-on-year decline to an expected 278 million tonnes of stocks in the 2026-27 season. But in the near term, these stock levels suggest long-term levels around 270 million tonnes, again implying available wheat supplies in the world market.
Therefore, this supply availability suggests that if logistics disruptions ease in the coming months, the global wheat market may see some relief from recent price surges driven by uncertainty, not supply constraints per se. Under such an environment, importing countries such as South Africa would stand to benefit. South Africa has had its fair share of challenges in the wheat market. Thus, the data from the Crop Estimates Committee show that South Africa’s 2026-27 winter wheat production estimate is 1.8 million tonnes. This is down 8% from the previous season and is the lowest expected harvest in eight years. Consequently, South Africa will likely increase wheat imports to around 2.0 million tonnes, up from 1.8 million tonnes last season. Indeed, production figures may still change as the season continues. Still, based on what we have observed on the ground and insights from farmers, we are more convinced that the 2026-27 season will remain challenging for wheat, and the country’s import requirements will be higher going forward.
The new marketing year starts in October 2026 and ends in September 2027, and the country may require more wheat imports during this period to meet local supply. Under these conditions, South African wheat users and consumers should watch global events that ultimately affect the price South Africans pay for wheat products.
Photo: Igor Karimov on Unsplash
Relevant Agribook pages include “Wheat.”
