Written by Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at Agbiz
The events in the Middle East remain a major concern for South Africa’s agriculture.
So far, the channels of the war’s impact on agriculture are mainly higher fuel and fertiliser prices and logistical complications regarding exports. Almost half of the crop farmers’ input costs, fuel and fertiliser, are increasing because of this war.
In terms of the exporting industries, the pressure is also intense. The Middle East is about 8% of South Africa’s agricultural exports of US$15.1 billion as of 2025. We also see generally rising shipping costs.
Clearly, the South African farming sector and agribusiness will have to contend with higher fuel prices during the harvesting of the 2025-26 summer grains and citrus, which will start in most areas next month. The same is true for winter crop farmers, who will begin plantings at the end of this month.
The pressures are not only contained in this period. What remains a major concern now is the medium-term view on how long this war will continue and the logistical constraints.
Not to downplay the challenges of the moment, but the 2026-27 summer crop season that starts in October 2026 is a key period. There will be higher fertiliser and fuel usage during this period, and these product prices will matter for farmers’ planting decisions for the new season.
Another issue that will complicate the environment at this time is the possibility of an El Niño, which could lead to less rain or a drought in South Africa. A combination of higher input costs and drier weather would discourage some farmers from planting in their usual crop areas. This would have a negative impact on 2027 from the consumer perspective and on agricultural supplies generally.
Still, these are events far out in the later part of the year. A lot can still change between now and then. I will keep a close eye on these events leading to the end of the year.
What is clear at the moment, which I want to underscore, is that we have more risks ahead of the 2026-27 crop season in South Africa. The production conditions for farmers have changed and are challenging. The Middle East war is adding pressure to an already tough operating environment.
For those observing the food price inflation matters closely, these events matter more for the 2027 food price inflation projections.
This article first appeared on AgriView. Read it here.
Photo: Bogdan Krupin on Pexels
