Written by Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at Agbiz
When published in 2012, the National Development Plan made headlines for, amongst other things, stating the possibility of creating a million jobs in agriculture and its value chain.
Much time has passed since then, and agriculture has created some employment, although not to the level the National Development Plan envisaged.
The challenge is not that the estimate was far off from reality. It was that as a country, we did not follow through on the various prerequisites outlined in Chapter Six of the National Development Plan for unlocking jobs in agriculture.
These included releasing government-owned land to beneficiaries, improving land governance in the former homelands, investing in refurbishing irrigation systems, and broad investment in improving the network infrastructure in the farming towns, among other things.
Since then, the private sector has primarily led the effort to sustain some farming towns, while municipal service delivery has dwindled. The land governance and release of government land with title deeds to new beneficiaries have also not progressed much.
The ongoing primarily private-sector effort, and government work, currently sustains 920k jobs in primary agriculture as of the third quarter of this year, up 2% from the previous quarter. The favourable weather cycles in recent years have also helped.
In the third quarter, we saw quarterly improvements in jobs in field crops, horticulture, forestry, and the production of organic fertiliser.
In addition to the long-term investment, the increase in employment reflects the optimism generated by the abundant harvest in these subsectors, which we have highlighted on numerous occasions.
In the near term, the one subsector that remains under pressure is the livestock industry, mainly due to the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease.
Notably, the jobs of 920k are far above the long-term average of 799k jobs, signalling that, while the sector faces challenges such as animal diseases, wage pressures in some industries, and inept municipal service delivery, among other issues, employment conditions remain encouraging.
It is also fair to note that, if one takes a step back and reflects on 2012, we had just 718k jobs in primary agriculture. Had we moved ahead as a country and implemented all key prerequisites for unlocking agricultural expansion, we likely would have had far more jobs than the 920k as of the third quarter of this year.
From a regional perspective, the 2025 quarterly job data show that the Western Cape, Free State, and Mpumalanga are the only provinces to register quarterly job losses. Meanwhile, other provinces saw mild quarterly job gains.
With that said, the Western Cape remains a major agricultural employer, accounting for 21% of South African agricultural jobs, followed by Limpopo (18%), KwaZulu-Natal (13%), Mpumalanga (12%), Eastern Cape (11%), Free State (8%), North West (8%), Northern Cape (5%), and Gauteng (4%).
Overall, my key takeaway from the third-quarter 2025 jobs data is that favourable production conditions in horticulture and field crops continue to sustain healthy employment levels.
As we expect favourable agricultural conditions to continue in the 2025-26 season, such employment levels are likely to be sustained into 2026. Still, the effects of the foot-and-mouth disease remain visible in the job data, and this could continue to be a challenge through to 2026.
From a long-term perspective, private sector investment has been the key driver sustaining these jobs. There remains greater room for more jobs in the sector if the government could move ahead and release the government-owned land of 2.5 million hectares to beneficiaries with title deeds, paired with blended finance, and partnership with organised agriculture for skills development.
South Africa’s agriculture is not yet at its full capacity and could still create more jobs and grow. There remains potential for increased employment, also within the sector’s value chain.
Partnerships between the government and the private sector will be key to unlocking these possibilities, as initially envisaged in Chapter Six of the National Development Plan back in 2012.
The article first appeared in Agricultural Economics Today. Read it here.
Photo: Circe Denyer on Pexels
