Press release
[The initial paragraph of the press release deals with statistical matters – how the agricultural GDP is worked out and that this is being reviewed. We will move straight to its look at agricultural conditions.]
Agricultural conditions
The Agricultural Conditions Assessment Committee of South Africa (ACAC) continues to view South Africa’s agricultural conditions as uneven, but leaning more towards the favourable growth path for most industries.
In FIELD CROPS, the output is up from the 2023-24 season, boosted by the favourable rainfall and vast planting area. For example, South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest is estimated at 19.94 million tonnes, a 28% year-on-year increase. This encompasses maize, soybeans, sunflower seed, sorghum, dry beans and groundnuts.
As a result of this ample harvest, the commodity prices are generally under pressure. The season was roughly a month and a half behind its typical schedule. As a result, some of the produce which would ordinarily be delivered in the second quarter was delivered under the third quarter of the year, which may boost the gross value-added figures for the third quarter specifically.
In terms of sugar cane production, conditions remain favourable, and the 2024-25 crop is higher than the previous season due to the favourable rains and decent planting. Prices are however under a bit of pressure given that world prices are substantially lower than a year ago.
In the case of winter crops, the season has not been as favourable. The start of the season presented some snail infestation in canola-producing regions of the Western Cape, a significant winter crop-producing province of South Africa. Moreover, the drier weather conditions at the end of August and the beginning of September also weighed on the crop. Still, the production estimates remain decent, with South Africa’s winter crop estimated at 2.77 million tonnes, up 4% from the 2024-25 season. This estimate comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines. Winter crop prices have held up better than summer crop prices.
In LIVESTOCK, the beef farmers and dairy producers continue to face a challenging environment due to foot-and-mouth disease. The disease and the slow process of vaccination will weigh on the profitability of farming businesses. Widespread impact from FMD has disrupted production, with slaughter volumes and carcass weights down as a result. But the one positive aspect is the better feed prices the ACAC continues to observe, following the large soybean and maize harvest.
Higher beef prices have also provided some support to pork and poultry prices, as a result of consumer substitution. These industries have shorter production cycles and can expand production to make up for beef supply disruptions. The pork and poultry industries also benefit from better feed costs, which is a major cost driver for them, while remaining concerned about animal diseases in general.
Regarding FRUITS, the 2024-25 season has been a period of recovery. The citrus volumes, deciduous fruits, table grapes, and other fruits are all in better conditions, and across the board, harvests, along with export volumes, are well up from last year. The ACAC also sees better volumes and quality in wine production, with substantial upward revisions in the latest wine grape crop estimates.
The primary concern for horticulture and wine producers remains trade policy, particularly the friction in the U.S. market and the slow pace of export diversification. At the production level, the conditions are favourable and should support third-quarter growth.
The production conditions for vegetables are also fair, benefiting from favourable rainfall.
Volumes are up year on year for most major vegetables, but given that the bulk of produce is consumed locally, additional volumes does bring price pressure. Consequently, there are, concerns about the profitability of some industries, such as potatoes, where prices have declined rapidly due to the large harvest.
As South Africa starts the 2025-26 summer crop season, the ACAC also assessed the outlook for INPUT COSTS. The emerging concern is the rise in the prices of various inputs like fertilizer, and the administrative prices, which continue to weigh on the sector. These are a concern given potential profitability impact. While its early in the season, the current production outlook for 2025-26 is also favourable, which may result in further price pressure.
Photo by Raphael Rychetsky on Unsplash
